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Blue Origin's New Glenn: A Second Shot at Mars, But What's the Real Trajectory?
Blue Origin is gearing up for the second launch of its New Glenn rocket, slated for Sunday, Nov. 9. This time, the 322-foot behemoth isn't just aiming for orbit; it's carrying NASA's ESCAPADE mission to Mars. The launch window, according to the FAA, stretches from 2:45 to 5:11 p.m. ET. The launch will occur from Launch Complex 36 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Base, a site Blue Origin spent a cool $1 billion to renovate. Jeff Bezos' Blue Origin to launch New Glenn rocket for 2nd time. Everything to know
The mission, dubbed NG-2, is more than just a test flight. It's a crucial step for Blue Origin in its quest to compete with SpaceX in the commercial space race. Bezos' company envisions New Glenn as a workhorse, capable of deploying Amazon's Project Kuiper satellites and handling other lucrative contracts. But let's not get ahead of ourselves.
The Booster's Gamble
The primary challenge? Sticking the landing. After the upper stage separates, Blue Origin will attempt to recover the first stage booster on a drone ship in the Atlantic. Blue Origin CEO Dave Limp downplayed the risk on X (formerly Twitter), stating, "What if we don't stick the landing? That's OK. We've got several more New Glenn boosters already in production." That's a confident statement, but the data tells a different story.
The maiden flight in January 2025 saw the upper stage reach orbit, but the booster was lost during descent. That's a 50% success rate – not exactly comforting for a reusable rocket designed for at least 25 flights. What happens if they fail to land this booster? Will the investors still be on board? It's one thing to lose the booster during an experimental launch, it's another thing to lose it while carrying a NASA payload.
And this is the part of the report that I find genuinely puzzling: Blue Origin is aiming for reusability, but the initial performance suggests significant hurdles. The fact that they are already in production of "several more" boosters implies that they fully expect to lose some. How many boosters can Blue Origin afford to lose before the economics of reusability fall apart?
Comparing Giants: New Glenn vs. the Competition
New Glenn is undeniably massive, comparable in size to NASA's Space Launch System (SLS). However, it's still dwarfed by SpaceX's Starship, which stands at approximately 400 feet. Size isn't everything, but payload capacity and cost per launch are. The source material doesn't provide hard numbers on these metrics for New Glenn, which is a glaring omission.
Blue Origin states on its website that the rocket has "room for bigger constellations and larger payloads." But "bigger" is a relative term. How does New Glenn's payload capacity compare to SpaceX's Falcon Heavy or Starship? Without concrete figures, it's impossible to assess New Glenn's competitive edge.
The upcoming mission also includes technology from Viasat, intended for use in low-Earth orbit. This highlights the multifaceted nature of New Glenn's mission – a blend of scientific exploration and commercial ventures. But is it trying to do too much at once? Is it better to focus on a specific niche and excel, or attempt to be a jack-of-all-trades?
A Calculated Risk, or Just Rocket Fuelled Optimism?
Blue Origin's second attempt with New Glenn is a high-stakes gamble. While a successful launch would be a major win, the company's track record and the lack of detailed performance data raise questions about its long-term viability. The space race is heating up, and only time will tell if New Glenn can truly compete.
The first stage is powered by seven of Blue Origin's BE-4 engines, while the upper stage operates with two BE-3U engines. (These engines are designed for the vacuum of space). If the engines fail, it could be a disaster.